Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract has declined sharply from 35¢ to 28¢ over seven days, now trading at 25¢ with a 9¢ spread, suggesting growing Republican confidence in this traditionally competitive Long Island seat. The 499% implied yield on the Yes side reflects extreme undervaluation risk or genuine structural Democratic weakness in NY-01, though the 2.33 volatility ratio and 489% realized volatility indicate substantial uncertainty remains with 198 days to expiration. Liquidity is modest at $11.6K open interest and $1.2K daily volume, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions despite the compelling asymmetric payoff.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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