Will Elon Musk win Musk v. Altman et al?

41¢

Bid/Ask 37/42¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $402.54·OI $130,616.66·Closes Jan 1, 2027·257d remaining

KXMUSKOAI-26

7-day price346 snapshots · 35 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The 7-cent cross-venue gap (41¢ on Kalshi vs. 34¢ on Polymarket) suggests meaningful arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing Musk's legal prospects notably higher despite identical resolution criteria. The extreme implied yield on the Yes side (241.6%) reflects both the long 257-day timeframe and substantial realized volatility (230%), though the modest 24-hour volume of $402.54 against $130k open interest indicates limited liquidity for executing large positions. The neutral regime and slow 7-day price drift (36¢ to 37¢) contrast sharply with the high info arrival rate (0.8/h), suggesting recent news has been priced in but the market remains sensitive to litigation developments.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 34¢(Δ +7¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 277.2%Close-time delta 39h

Resolution rules

If the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Musk v. Altman et al before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 241.6%

IY (No) 83.3%

Adj IY 209%

CRI 2

RV 230%

VR 1.47

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	241.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	83.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	209%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	230%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.47	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.14	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 9:47:07 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 9:38:31 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMUSKOAI-26 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →