Will OpenAI change its CEO?

29¢

Bid/Ask 23/28¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $2,425.82·OI $24,166.57·Closes Jan 1, 2027·259d remaining

KXOPENAICEOCHANGE-26

7-day price352 snapshots · 4 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The Yes position shows an extreme 499.9% implied yield with a significant 9¢ cross-venue gap (29¢ on Kalshi vs. 20¢ on Polymarket), suggesting either Kalshi traders are pricing in elevated CEO transition risk or the venues have diverged on event probability. The 1,002% realized volatility and 4.59 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced wild swings, though current liquidity is modest at $24k open interest with a 5¢ spread, limiting the reliability of the price discovery. With 259 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 3.0/hour, the market appears to be actively trading on OpenAI developments, though the neutral regime suggests no clear directional consensus at present.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 20¢(Δ +9¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.85IY 567.9%Close-time delta 43h

Resolution rules

If OpenAI's CEO (including an interim CEO) changes by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.9%

IY (No) 39.8%

Adj IY 409%

CRI 4

RV 1002%

VR 4.59

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	39.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	409%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1002%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.59	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.18	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 9:47:05 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/17/2026, 9:38:50 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXOPENAICEOCHANGE-26 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →