Will Simone Biles go on Call Her Daddy?

8¢mid

Bid/Ask 3/13¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jan 1, 2027·257d remaining

KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN-SIM

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 4588% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 10¢ spread and 0¢ current price suggest minimal trader conviction either direction, though the sharp yield differential indicates the market is pricing in a very low probability event with substantial uncertainty baked in. With 257 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, traders should be cautious about the reliability of these odds given the thin market conditions.

Resolution rules

If Simone Biles goes on Call Her Daddy before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4588.3%

IY (No) 4.4%

Adj IY 2294%

CRI 32

Overround 6.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4588.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2294%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:01:20 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 9:53:31 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN-SIM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →