Will Bruno Mars be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in April 2026?

5¢

Bid/Ask 0/5¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $25.87·OI $3,193.98·Closes May 1, 2026·12d remaining

KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26MAY01-BRU

7-day price24 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 56,881% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 5¢ price significantly undervalues Bruno Mars's chances of hitting #1 on Spotify's US daily chart during April 2026. The sharp 7-day decline from 9¢ to 5¢ combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $25.87 and a tight $3,193.98 open interest indicates low liquidity and potential manipulation, making this a high-risk venue for serious traders despite the theoretically attractive odds. With only 12 days until expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, the market's resolution is imminent, leaving little time to capitalize on any mispricing correction.

Resolution rules

If Bruno Mars has a #1 song on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 56881.6%

IY (No) 157.6%

Adj IY 28441%

CRI 19

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	56881.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	157.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	28441%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 9:37:27 AM

Observability directEvent type cultural

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 9:23:30 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26MAY01-BRU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →