Will The Weeknd be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in April 2026?

3¢

Bid/Ask 3/5¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $1·OI $68.11·Closes May 1, 2026·12d remaining

KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26MAY01-WEE

7-day price11 snapshots · 4 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 91,111% implied yield on Yes contracts despite The Weeknd's consistent chart presence and upcoming album cycle, suggesting severe illiquidity ($67 open interest, $6 daily volume) is driving the distortion rather than genuine probability assessment. The 2¢ spread and 3x price increase over 7 days indicate minimal trading activity and potential manipulation, while the 13-day countdown to expiry creates cliff risk (index: 32) that could trigger sudden repricing. The No side's 87.2% yield offers more realistic compensation for a straightforward outcome, making this market unreliable for serious prediction purposes until liquidity improves.

Resolution rules

If The Weeknd has a #1 song on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 96798.4%

IY (No) 92.6%

Adj IY 48399%

CRI 32

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	96798.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	92.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	48399%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 9:36:51 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 9:23:30 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26MAY01-WEE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →