Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in April?

The market is pricing an 83% probability of exceeding 125 tornadoes in April, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (500% for Yes vs. 11,919% for No) reveal severe liquidity constraints on the No side, suggesting the price may not reflect true consensus. With only $1,348 in open interest and a 2¢ spread across 15 days to expiry, this thin market has experienced notable volatility (225% realized) and a 3¢ price decline over the past week, indicating either shifting expectations or low conviction among traders. The high cliff risk index (5) combined with a 1.2 info arrivals per hour suggests April tornado data or forecasts could move this market significantly before resolution.

Resolution rules

If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Apr is above 125 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade