Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?

Therese Terlaje is priced at 41¢ with an exceptionally high implied yield of 499% on the yes side, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $11,817 in open interest despite a wide 11¢ spread. The 650% realized volatility and sharp 5-point price movement over seven days (36¢ to 41¢) suggest thin order books are driving outsized swings, making this price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With 105 days to expiry and a 1.6 info arrivals per hour, this market appears to be a low-conviction, low-activity niche bet that could experience significant repricing once genuine liquidity or campaign developments emerge.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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