Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Andy Barr is priced at a dominant 73% probability across both Polymarket and Kalshi, reflecting strong consensus that he'll secure the Republican nomination with just 30 days until the May 2026 primary. The extreme 3,253% risk-adjusted yield on "No" signals minimal conviction in alternative outcomes, though the 79% realized volatility and recent 10-point price surge from 63¢ suggest underlying uncertainty despite the consensus pricing. Thin 24-hour volume of $81 and a modest 3¢ spread indicate this market lacks deep liquidity, so large positions could move the price materially as the primary approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky. If no 2026 Kentucky Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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