Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $222k open interest, paired with a massive 63¢ bid-ask spread and astronomical 499% implied yield on the yes side—classic signs of a thin, potentially stale market where the 36¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 3038% realized volatility and 14.78 vol ratio suggest wild historical price swings, though the minimal 7-day movement (39¢ to 40¢) and neutral regime indicate the market has recently stabilized. With 136 days to the September 1, 2026 primary and an 8.3/hour information arrival rate, this appears to be a speculative position on a relatively unknown candidate where price discovery remains incomplete.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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