Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $60.6K, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 38¢ bid-ask spread indicating thin order books. The 1,593% realized volatility and 9.56 vol ratio suggest wild price swings driven by minimal trading activity rather than fundamental information, while the 302% risk-adjusted implied yield reflects the high uncertainty and illiquidity premium. With 136 days to expiry and the primary resolving on the exact close date (9/1/2026), traders should be cautious of cliff risk and the market's apparent lack of sustained interest in Lynch's nomination prospects.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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