Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?

The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 40¢ to 20¢ over seven days, suggesting recent information reduced expectations of Cho's departure by roughly 50%, though the 661% realized volatility and extreme 530.6% implied yield on "Yes" indicate significant uncertainty persists. The 15¢ spread and modest $97.84 daily volume on $3.5M open interest suggest illiquidity may be constraining price discovery, and the 3.21 volatility ratio combined with 0.7 information arrivals per hour points to an event-driven market vulnerable to sudden moves around Taiwan political developments. With 259 days to expiry and a 4/10 cliff risk index, traders appear to be pricing in low near-term removal probability but substantial tail risk of unexpected political upheaval.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cho Jung-tai ceases to be Premier of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Cho Jung-tai's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cho Jung-tai and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade