Who will win Vezina Trophy?

14¢

Bid/Ask 0/1¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $95·Closes Jun 30, 2026·72d remaining

KXNHLVEZINA-26-TDEM

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This micro-liquidity market on Kalshi shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 3116% implied yield on the Yes side versus 83% on the No side, suggesting severe underpricing of Thatcher Demko's Vezina chances relative to the 14¢ quote. The $95 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate virtually no trading activity, making the 1¢ spread somewhat misleading as a liquidity indicator—any meaningful position could move this price substantially. With 72 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this market carries meaningful execution risk, and the absence of a Polymarket comparison price limits cross-venue arbitrage opportunities.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.95Close-time delta 14h

Resolution rules

If Thatcher Demko wins the NHL Vezina Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3118.9%

IY (No) 82.7%

Adj IY 1448%

CRI 6

Overround 0.4%

LAS 0.07

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3118.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	82.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1448%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 4:52:14 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 4:38:14 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNHLVEZINA-26-TDEM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →