Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing in only a 20% probability of Ari Weinstein leaving OpenAI by end-2026, yet the "Yes" side offers an extreme 532% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk or very low conviction among traders. With zero 24-hour volume despite $2,037 in open interest and a wide 7¢ spread, this illiquid market shows minimal recent price movement (19¢ to 21¢ over 7 days) and an unusually high realized volatility of 697%, indicating the few trades that do occur create outsized swings. The 258-day timeframe and neutral regime score suggest the market is awaiting information arrival (1.2 events per hour) rather than reacting to current news.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ari Weinstein ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI. An official announcement of Ari’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Ari indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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