Will Joe Evans be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Idaho?

This illiquid market shows a notable 2¢ cross-venue gap, with Kalshi pricing Joe Evans at 5¢ versus Polymarket's 3¢, suggesting either mispricing or differing trader conviction across platforms. The extreme 3496% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size ($186 open interest) and wide 4¢ bid-ask spread rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity—zero 24-hour volume indicates no recent price discovery. With 198 days to the 2026 Idaho Republican primary, the neutral regime and moderate cliff risk (19) suggest this is a speculative long-shot bet with minimal market depth.

Resolution rules

If Joe Evans wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Idaho Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Regime

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