Will Joe Evans be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?

Joe Evans is trading at a significant discount on Polymarket (2¢) compared to Kalshi (5¢), suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or venue-specific liquidity differences. The 2% implied probability reflects minimal market confidence in Evans's nomination chances, with the market showing modest upward momentum over seven days (1¢ to 2¢) despite extremely thin 24-hour volume of just $19.02. With over 18 months until the May 2026 close date and $7.5M open interest, this appears to be a longer-dated speculative position where the cross-venue price gap warrants monitoring for convergence.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Regime

Trade