Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026?

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1693% and a sharp 27-cent price decline over seven days (68¢ to 41¢), suggesting significant recent negative information for the "Yes" position. The 59¢ current price implies a 59% probability of departure, but the massive 515.6% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with very thin liquidity ($5,758.83 open interest and $60.73 daily volume) indicates this contract may be mispriced or driven by low-volume trades. With 106 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 1.5 events per hour, the market appears to be pricing in substantial uncertainty around Patel's tenure, though the wide 15-cent spread reflects difficulty in establishing fair value.

Resolution rules

If Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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