Will Li Tu win the Sun vs Tu: Final match?

1¢

Bid/Ask 0/1¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $819,499.26·OI $450,685.68·Closes Apr 19, 2026·14d remaining

KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26APR19SUNTUL-TUL

7-day price59 snapshots · 7 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Li Tu is priced at an extreme 1¢ with a staggering 2427% implied yield on the Yes side, yet the market has seen exceptional volume of $819k in 24 hours—unusual liquidity for such a low-probability outcome. The price has collapsed 85% over seven days (from 6¢ to 1¢), and the 7.62 vol ratio combined with 4237% realized volatility suggests either sharp new information about Tu's injury/withdrawal or potential manipulation ahead of the 4/19/2026 expiry. With 14 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this appears to be a binary event where the market is pricing in near-certain victory for Sun, making the Yes contract a high-risk lottery ticket rather than a balanced wager.

Resolution rules

If Li Tu wins the Sun vs Tu professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Wuning 2 Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2427.4%

IY (No) 2848.8%

Adj IY 2794%

CRI 1

RV 4237%

VR 7.62

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2427.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2848.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2794%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4237%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	7.62	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 9:42:05 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 8:53:31 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26APR19SUNTUL-TUL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →