Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Virginia?

This market is pricing Warner as an overwhelming favorite at 94¢, but the extreme 4,416% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity rather than genuine uncertainty—with only $762 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, the spread is too wide to trust. The sharp 73% realized volatility and recent 2-cent decline from 98¢ suggest sporadic, low-conviction trading, and the missing Polymarket price prevents arbitrage confirmation of fair value. Given 198 days to expiry and Warner's established position, this contract appears adequately priced on the "Yes" side but should be treated as illiquid until volume materializes.

Resolution rules

If Mark Warner wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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