Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia?

This market is pricing Warner as an overwhelming favorite at 99¢ on Polymarket, but a notable 3-cent cross-venue gap exists with Kalshi trading at 96¢, suggesting some disagreement on his nomination certainty. The zero 24-hour volume combined with thin liquidity ($9.6k open interest) indicates minimal recent trading activity, making the 99¢ price potentially stale and the Kalshi discount potentially more reflective of current sentiment. With over 18 months until the June 2026 close date, arbitrage opportunities may exist between venues, though the low volume suggests limited practical execution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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