Will the Detroit win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?

5¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $559,868.26·OI $4,285,312.93·Closes Jun 29, 2028·802d remaining

KXNBA-26-DET

7-day price6 snapshots · 122 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The Detroit Pistons' championship odds are priced at an extremely depressed 5¢, generating a staggering 1092.1% implied yield for Yes positions—a red flag suggesting either severe mispricing or that the market is pricing in structural disadvantages (roster weakness, draft position). The 802-day time horizon and $4.3M open interest provide substantial runway and liquidity ($567K daily volume), yet the recent price decline from 5¢ to 4¢ over seven days indicates weakening conviction in Detroit's prospects, possibly reflecting recent team performance or playoff odds adjustments. The 24-point Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as it suggests potential volatility around resolution or event-driven shocks that could dramatically shift probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Detroit win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1092.2%

IY (No) 1.9%

Adj IY 410%

CRI 24

Overround -0.0%

LAS 0.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1092.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	410%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 12:26:47 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 12:23:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBA-26-DET yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →