Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. The market is pricing a 89% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in June 2026, with a tight 1¢ spread indicating reasonable liquidity despite modest 24-hour volume of $2,752.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 89% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in June 2026, with a tight 1¢ spread indicating reasonable liquidity despite modest 24-hour volume of $2,752. The extreme 4,334% implied yield on the "No" outcome and elevated realized volatility of 81% suggest significant uncertainty around potential rate hikes, though the neutral regime and recent price stability (89¢ to 88¢ over 7 days) indicate the market hasn't shifted materially on new information arriving at 0.6 events per hour.
Resolution rules
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0 yes 100