CA-45 Primary Winners
Leader sits at 64% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Chuong Vo
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Chi Charlie Nguyen
Spread
47pp
contested
24h volume
$312
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA-45 Primary Winners
What moved the line
- Jun 10Chuong Vo↑16pp61→77¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4Chuong Vo↑11pp60→71¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6Chuong Vo↓10pp72→62¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10Tom Vo↓5pp13→8¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Who will advance from the California Lieutenant Governor primarylast 3% · 0d
- Nevada Governor Democratic Primary Winnerlast 97% · 0d
- CA-40 Primary Winnerslast 73% · 0d
- CA-07 Primary Winnerslast 77% · 0d
- ME-02 Republican Primary Winnerlast 96% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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