Will AP call the California gubernatorial primary before 11:05 PM ET on Jun 2, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−35pp
33h ago
24h volume
$78
1 contracts
Top contract
3¢
$78 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will AP call the California gubernatorial primary before 10:00 AM ET on Jun 3, 2026
Analysis
This market estimates the probability that the Associated Press will call California's gubernatorial primary before 11:05 PM ET on June 2, 2026—roughly 4 hours after polls close. The 4¢ price reflects the difficulty of calling a statewide race with such tight margins and the requirement for AP to be highly confident before making a call. Early calls typically occur only in blowouts; contested races may take days or weeks as mail-in ballots are counted. The main driver of timing would be whether any candidate achieves a decisive early lead that makes the outcome mathematically certain before late evening. Actual resolution depends on results as they are reported throughout election night and AP's internal confidence thresholds for calling the race.
- ›California's mail-in voting system means many ballots arrive after election day, delaying final counts and making early calls difficult
- ›The market is pricing in historical patterns where contested primaries typically aren't called until votes are substantially counted, often taking days
- ›If exit polls and early reported results show a clear front-runner with insurmountable margins, AP may call earlier; if results are tight, a call before 11:05 PM ET becomes unlikely
- ›The 4-cent contract price suggests traders view an 11:05 PM ET call as a low-probability event compared to later resolution windows
- ›AP's decision rules require sufficient vote counting and confidence intervals to call a race, making tight contests and same-day calling incompatible
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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