Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?
Leader sits at 53% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 44%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
44¢
PSOE-A # of seats?: 24-26
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$141
thin orderbook
Closes
May 17, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats
Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 33+
0xda78cd…ff15
Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29
0x736d16…2970
Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 30-32
0x3e78b7…0e2f
Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 21-23
0x5fac8b…b4f6
Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 24-26
0x23abb3…3d7f
Analysis
This represents the market's current assessment that Spain's Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A) will win between 27-29 seats in the upcoming Andalusian regional election. The 53% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome, with significant uncertainty remaining. Market participants are weighing regional political dynamics, voter preference trends, and the performance of competing parties—particularly the Popular Party and other regional actors. The outcome depends substantially on regional economic conditions, immigration sentiment, and campaign momentum in the months leading to the election. The election itself will be the definitive catalyst, though pre-election polling releases and any major political developments or scandals could shift expectations before voting occurs. Current pricing indicates this range is viewed as slightly more likely than not, but the 44% probability for the runner-up outcome reflects genuine competitive uncertainty.
- ›PSOE-A's current polling position relative to the Popular Party (PP-A) and their respective seat projections under Andalusia's electoral system
- ›Recent voter turnout patterns in Andalusian elections and whether turnout changes would benefit or harm PSOE-A specifically
- ›The performance and seat-splitting effects of third parties (Ciudadanos, Vox, regional formations) on the distribution of lower-threshold votes
- ›Economic indicators and regional employment data in Andalusia that could shift voter preferences toward or away from the governing party
- ›Any significant political scandals, policy announcements, or coalition announcements by major parties in the months before the scheduled election
What moved the line
- Jun 3PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29↑25pp72→97¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29↑15pp57→72¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29↑3pp95→98¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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