Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?
Leader sits at 48% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 47%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
PP # of seats?: 53-55
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
47¢
PP # of seats?: 56-58
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$765
thin orderbook
Closes
May 17, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Andalusia Election: PP # of seats
Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 59-61
0x75da46…22bb
Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 50-52
0x9bf43a…3961
Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 56-58
0x08927f…8651
Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 53-55
0x5a6e75…4631
Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: <50
0x61992a…1513
Analysis
This market estimates a 40% probability that Spain's PP (People's Party) will win between 53–55 seats in Andalusia, making it the single most-likely outcome among six bracketed options. The market shows meaningful probability mass spread across adjacent ranges: 56–58 seats trades at 30%, and 59–61 seats at 12%, suggesting traders view a broader PP performance band (53–61 seats) as highly plausible. The current 40% price reflects that while this seat range is favored, substantial uncertainty remains about whether the PP performs slightly better or worse. Key drivers include recent regional polling trends, national political dynamics affecting PP momentum, and turnout patterns that typically influence seat distribution in Spanish regional elections. The outcome will be determined when Andalusia holds its next scheduled regional election; until that date, market prices depend on evolving polls and political news that signal shifting electoral conditions.
- ›Most recent Andalusian polling shows PP seat projections and their 95% confidence intervals relative to the 53–55 range
- ›Trading volume on the 53–55 contract ($20 in 24h) is substantially lower than adjacent ranges, indicating less conviction or liquidity than the current price suggests
- ›Cumulative probability across 53–61 seat ranges (40% + 30% + 12%) represents 82% of the market, implying traders assign very low likelihood to sub-50 or 62+ outcomes
- ›The timing of Andalusia's next scheduled regional election and any announced snap-election triggers that would move up or delay the vote
- ›Recent political events or coalition dynamics at national or regional level that could shift voter behavior or seat projections
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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