CA-07 House Election Winner
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Democratic Party
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Republican Party
Spread
92pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$95
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
137 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA-07 House Election Winner
Analysis
The 60% probability reflects market participants' assessment that a specific candidate or party will win the CA-07 House seat in the next general election. This probability sits at a moderate level, suggesting meaningful uncertainty remains about the eventual outcome. The current assessment is likely driven by factors such as recent polling data, district demographics, and historical voting patterns in California's 7th congressional district. Changes to this probability would follow shifts in campaign dynamics, candidate positioning, or new polling releases. The next scheduled general election will provide the definitive resolution, though primary results and campaign developments in the months leading up to voting day serve as intermediate indicators that could shift market sentiment.
- ›Polling aggregates and their trend direction in CA-07 over the past 60-90 days
- ›District partisan lean based on recent presidential and statewide election results
- ›Candidate quality, fundraising totals, and campaign organization metrics reported by news outlets
- ›Primary election results if applicable, showing candidate viability and base enthusiasm
- ›Historical accuracy of prediction markets in similar House races within the same election cycle
Recently closed in election 2026
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 0d
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 0d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 0d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 0d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.