Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
12%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Top contract
12¢
$5K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran
0xc4a229…3f30
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that IR Iran will win or draw in an upcoming match against Belgium. At 12%, the market is pricing Iran as a significant underdog. The current odds reflect Belgium's higher FIFA ranking and recent performance metrics, while also accounting for Iran's home-field advantage and historical performance in competitive matches. The key uncertainty centers on team composition, recent form leading into the match, and tactical matchups on the day of play. The match result will definitively resolve this contract when the fixture is completed.
- ›Belgium's FIFA ranking and recent international match record compared to Iran's current standing
- ›Iran's historical performance in home fixtures versus away performance in competitive international matches
- ›Recent injury reports and roster availability for both teams in the weeks leading to kickoff
- ›Head-to-head historical record and outcomes from previous competitive matchups between the nations
- ›Pre-match betting odds from major sports books and their implied probability for an Iran victory or draw
Recently closed in iran
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?last 5% · 0d
- Iran coup attempt by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Who will enter Iran by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...last 8% · 0d
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (12% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Collapse for Mid-June
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.