Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.4M bpd

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract reflects market expectations that Iran will average at least 2.4 million barrels per day of crude oil production during June 2026, currently priced at 51% probability. Iran's crude output has been constrained by decades of sanctions, though recent diplomatic developments and sanctions relief have allowed production to fluctuate significantly. The current pricing suggests roughly even odds, with traders weighing Iran's capacity to sustain output above this threshold against risks from renewed sanctions pressure, technical maintenance, or geopolitical escalation. The June 2026 average will be finalized when official production data is reported by international agencies like the IEA or OPEC in early July 2026. Key uncertainty centers on whether Iran can maintain production momentum in the second half of the year, as contract prices for higher thresholds (3.8M bpd at 16%, 3.0M bpd at 27%) drop sharply, indicating markets assign significantly lower probability to sustained higher production levels.

• ›Iran's actual June 2026 crude production will be measured against IEA, OPEC, or similar official data releases in July 2026, establishing the factual basis for contract settlement
• ›The 2.4M bpd threshold sits between the current leader (1.6M bpd at 51%) and mid-range levels (2.6M bpd at 43%), indicating market uncertainty about whether Iran sustains recent production gains or faces headwinds
• ›Technical capacity at Iranian refineries and export infrastructure, combined with international sanctions regime status in mid-2026, will directly constrain maximum sustainable output
• ›The steep probability drop across production thresholds (from 51% at 1.6M to 16% at 3.8M) suggests traders view sustained production above 2.6M bpd as increasingly unlikely
• ›Geopolitical events between now and June—including sanctions policy changes, regional conflict escalation, or diplomatic breakthroughs—represent the primary variable that could shift production trajectories

What moved the line

• Jun 18At least 1.6M bpd↑33pp27→60¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 18At least 2.0M bpd↑17pp22→39¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19At least 2.8M bpd↓16pp26→10¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19At least 3.0M bpd↓15pp18→3¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 18At least 1.8M bpd↑15pp28→43¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds