US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Collapse for Mid-June
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.
Key takeaways
- 01
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢.
- 02
This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.
- 03
Three separate contracts for US-Iran diplomatic meetings have seen catastrophic declines today.
Full analysis
Three separate contracts for US-Iran diplomatic meetings have seen catastrophic declines today. The June 15 meeting (P | 0x35c73eb41a0ee54b49) fell 39 points to 3¢, the June 16 meeting (P | 0xbd5585ee0a5f30e605) fell 47 points to 6¢, and the June 17 meeting (P | 0x3d8d89ffe0cbbd7580) fell 48 points to 13¢. Cumulatively, these contracts have seen over 528k in volume. This seems contradictory to the 100¢ price on the June 15 permanent peace deal. The market appears to be pricing in a scenario where a deal is reached via indirect channels, back-channels, or without a formal, high-level diplomatic meeting. Traders are buying the outcome (peace deal) but selling the process (diplomatic meeting). The
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