Who will advance the California Insurance Commissioner primary
Leader sits at 89% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 66%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ben Allen
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
66¢
Stacy A. Korsgaden
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
370 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will advance the California Insurance Commissioner primary
Who will advance the California Insurance Commissioner primary?: Stacy A. Korsgaden
KXCAINSCOM-26-SKOR
Who will advance the California Insurance Commissioner primary?: Patrick Wolff
KXCAINSCOM-26-PWOL
Who will advance the California Insurance Commissioner primary?: Steven Craig Bradford
KXCAINSCOM-26-SBRA
Who will advance the California Insurance Commissioner primary?: Ben Allen
KXCAINSCOM-26-BALL
Who will advance the California Insurance Commissioner primary?: Jane Kim
KXCAINSCOM-26-JKIM
Who will advance the California Insurance Commissioner primary?: Robert P. Howell
KXCAINSCOM-26-RHOW
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Ben Allen will advance from California's Insurance Commissioner primary, currently assessed at 81% likelihood. The significant gap between Allen's price (81¢) and other candidates (13¢ each) suggests traders view him as the frontrunner, likely based on factors such as name recognition, fundraising capacity, or prior electoral performance. Key drivers of this probability include Allen's political profile and campaign infrastructure relative to competitors. The primary election results will ultimately resolve this market, as only one or two candidates typically advance depending on the specific primary structure. Changes to this probability would reflect new information about candidate momentum, voter preference shifts, or campaign developments in the weeks before voting occurs.
- ›Ben Allen's current fundraising total and cash-on-hand compared to other declared candidates
- ›Primary ballot structure and advancement thresholds (whether multiple candidates advance or winner-take-all)
- ›Recent polling data or voter surveys specific to California Insurance Commissioner race if available
- ›Media coverage and endorsement patterns among Democratic establishment or insurance-focused groups
- ›Voter registration and turnout patterns in previous California statewide primaries
What moved the line
- May 27Steven Craig Bradford↑12pp13→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Steven Craig Bradford↓11pp25→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Jane Kim↑7pp13→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Patrick Wolff↓4pp13→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Robert P. Howell↓3pp13→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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