Denmark vs. Ukraine
Leader sits at 56% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Denmark
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Draw (Denmark vs. Ukraine)
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Denmark vs. Ukraine
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations for a Denmark vs. Ukraine matchup, with Denmark currently priced as the stronger favorite at 56% likelihood of victory, while Ukraine is at 18% and a draw at 26%. The odds suggest Denmark holds a material advantage, though not overwhelming. Key drivers of this assessment likely include recent team form, head-to-head records, player availability, and home-field considerations if applicable. The main uncertainty revolves around tactical execution on match day and whether either team experiences unexpected personnel changes before kickoff. Resolution depends on the final match result, which will determine whether the Denmark contract settles at full value or expires worthless. Market liquidity is relatively modest across all three contracts, meaning significant new information could shift prices noticeably. The gap between Denmark and Ukraine reflects confidence in the favorite rather than certainty, leaving meaningful probability mass for an upset or stalemate.
- ›Denmark is priced at 56% on Polymarket versus Ukraine at 18%, suggesting a two-to-one confidence ratio favoring Denmark
- ›Ukraine draw contract at 26% indicates material expectations for a stalemate outcome, which would void both Denmark and Ukraine win contracts
- ›Trading volume for the Denmark contract ($35 24h vol) is substantially lower than the Ukraine contract ($790 24h vol), suggesting asymmetric trader interest
- ›The three-way structure means the three probabilities must sum to 100%, so any shift in draw probability directly redistributes odds between the two teams
- ›Home advantage, current injury reports, and recent competitive form between these specific teams would be primary factors explaining the current 56% Denmark favoritism
Recently closed in ukraine
- Will there be a Ukraine ceasefire?last 11% · 0d
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...last 64% · 0d
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026last 3% · 0d
- Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...last 3% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ukraine.
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.