Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
25%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$854
1 contracts
Top contract
25¢
$854 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran
0x398413…2f06
Analysis
This represents the market's estimate that Iran will defeat Egypt in an upcoming match. At 27%, the market is pricing Iran as a clear underdog against Egypt. The probability reflects Iran's recent competitive struggles and Egypt's historical strength in regional football, though Iran's performance has been volatile. Key drivers of this level include each team's current roster quality, recent head-to-head records, and their form leading into the fixture. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the match result itself. Market participants will likely adjust their position based on official team lineups, any late injury announcements, or recent competitive performance in the days immediately before kickoff.
- ›Iran's historical win rate against Egypt in official competitions and recent head-to-head matchups
- ›Current FIFA ranking differential and recent qualification performance by each nation
- ›Availability of key players and reported injuries to starting lineups
- ›Venue location (home advantage) and travel conditions for the match
- ›Recent form trajectory of Iran measured by wins/losses in prior 5-10 competitive matches
What moved the line
- Jun 16IR Iran↓3pp28→25¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
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- Iran coup attempt by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Who will enter Iran by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...last 8% · 0d
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (25% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
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The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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