Will JD Vance endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18
6 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
4 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump Jr. endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026
Cluster 2
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026
Cluster 3
Will JD Vance endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026
Cluster 4
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026
Cluster 5
Will Tucker Carlson endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026
Cluster 6
Will Steve Bannon endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Vice President JD Vance will publicly endorse Spencer Pratt in Los Angeles's 2026 mayoral race before June 2, 2026. At 25%, the market suggests endorsement is possible but not the most probable outcome. The probability is driven by two main considerations: first, Vance's past tendency to engage with celebrity politics and non-traditional candidates, which could make such an endorsement conceivable; second, the short timeframe (roughly 3 weeks from today) and lack of any recent signals suggesting Vance is focusing on California local races, which reduces the likelihood of this specific event occurring. The resolution date of June 2 represents the election itself, making any endorsement in this period final and definitive. The current 25% level reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Vance would choose to weigh in on this particular race during such a compressed window.
- ›JD Vance has made no public statements about Spencer Pratt's mayoral candidacy as of mid-May 2026
- ›The endorsement window closes June 2, 2026 (approximately 21 days), limiting the time for Vance to engage
- ›Similar endorsement probabilities for Tucker Carlson (21¢) and Donald Trump Jr. (19¢) suggest low baseline expectation for any conservative political figure backing Pratt
- ›Spencer Pratt's campaign visibility and any direct solicitation of Vance's support would be required to materially shift this probability upward
- ›Marjorie Taylor Greene's contract (48¢) trades significantly higher, suggesting differential assessment of her likelihood to participate in local LA politics
What moved the line
- May 22Marjorie Taylor Greene↓10pp37→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Steve Bannon↓9pp28→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Steve Bannon↑6pp22→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Marjorie Taylor Greene↓4pp24→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Steve Bannon↓4pp19→15¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- TX-19 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- Texas Republican Senate Primary Winnerlast 96% · 1d
- Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winnerlast 67% · 1d
- TX-38 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Texas Senate Runoff Nears Certainty: Paxton Favored
Ken Paxton’s probability of winning the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff hit 100¢, up 4¢, while John Cornyn dropped to 0¢. Over 800k volume across these two markets reflects intense last‑minute hedging.
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85¢ for House, Texas Turning Purple
Democrats hold a commanding 85¢ price for House control while the Senate remains a toss-up; Texas shows surprising weakness with anti-tariff sentiment reshaping traditional Republican strongholds.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.