Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$765K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
0x9352c5…056f
Analysis
This probability estimates the chance that Iran's current government structure fundamentally collapses by June 30, 2026. The 7% assessment reflects markets pricing this as an unlikely but non-negligible scenario within 58 days. The probability would rise with evidence of mass civil unrest, military defection, or international intervention; it would fall if the regime consolidates control or external pressure eases. The key catalyst is the trajectory of domestic political stability over the next two months—any major escalation in protests, security force fractures, or external military action would immediately shift expectations. Markets show declining confidence as the timeframe extends (3% by May 31 versus 19% by end of 2027), suggesting most participants view regime collapse as possible but more likely a multi-year process than an imminent event.
- ›Current domestic unrest levels and protest organization capacity compared to historical episodes
- ›Military and security force cohesion—any reported defections, splits between IRGC factions, or loyalty shifts
- ›Regional military escalation involving Iran, which could destabilize internal control structures
- ›Evidence of succession disputes or loss of unified command at the highest governmental levels
- ›International military or economic intervention that demonstrably weakens regime enforcement capacity
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Collapse for Mid-June
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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