Will Total Construction Spending
Leader sits at 88% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 74%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $130 billion?: Above $130 billion
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
74¢
Manufacturing in the United
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
205 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $
Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $130 billion?: Above $130 billion
KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T130
Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $220 billion?: Above $220 billion
KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T220
Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $200 billion?: Above $200 billion
KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T200
Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $190 billion?: Above $190 billion
KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T190
Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $180 billion?: Above $180 billion
KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T180
Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $170 billion?: Above $170 billion
KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T170
Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $160 billion?: Above $160 billion
KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T160
Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $150 billion?: Above $150 billion
KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T150
Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $140 billion?: Above $140 billion
KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T140
Analysis
This 15% probability represents the market's assessment that total construction spending will meet a specific threshold in an upcoming period. The current low probability suggests traders expect construction activity to remain below that benchmark. The main drivers of this assessment are recent economic data on construction activity, labor availability in the construction sector, and anticipated policy or interest-rate impacts on building investment. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the official construction spending release from the relevant statistical agency, which will provide definitive data against the contract's specific threshold. Between now and resolution, changes in mortgage rates, unemployment figures, and business confidence indicators could shift trader expectations significantly. The relatively low trading volume across related contracts indicates moderate market interest in this outcome.
- ›Construction spending data releases will directly test whether activity exceeds the specified threshold
- ›Interest rate movements affect borrowing costs and investment decisions for construction projects
- ›Labor market conditions, particularly wage pressure and availability, influence construction sector capacity and spending
- ›Private investment announcements and government infrastructure spending announcements signal future construction activity
- ›Seasonal patterns in construction spending may concentrate activity in specific quarters, affecting whether annual or quarterly thresholds are crossed
What moved the line
- Jul 6Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $140 billion?: Above $140 billion↑4pp70→74¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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