Total Construction Spending
Above $150 billion is priced at 64¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 59¢ bid, 68¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 10 inside Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $.
Price history
64¢ current
Contract brief
If Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 is above $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $150 billion
Rank
#3 of 10
Leader
Above $130 billion 88¢
Range
2¢-88¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T150
Jul 13, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
59¢
Ask
68¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#3 of 10
10 outcomes · Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
59 / 68¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 is above $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T150
Event family
Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Above $130 billion 88¢
Current share
—
Above $130 billion
kalshi · KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T130
Above $140 billion
kalshi · KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T140
Above $150 billion
kalshi · KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T150
Above $160 billion
kalshi · KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T160
Above $170 billion
kalshi · KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T170
Above $180 billion
kalshi · KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T180
Above $190 billion
kalshi · KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T190
Above $220 billion
kalshi · KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T220
Above $200 billion
kalshi · KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T200
Above $210 billion
kalshi · KXMANUCON-27FEB01-T210
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
Read 64% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.