Presidential Election Winner 2028
Leader sits at 17% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
JD Vance
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Marco Rubio
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$28K
liquid
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
872 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Gavin Newsom has an 18% chance of winning the 2028 U.S. presidential election. The current level suggests traders view him as a meaningful but not dominant contender among potential candidates. Market prices reflect uncertainty about candidate field formation, primary outcomes, and general election dynamics still years away. Key drivers of this probability include Newsom's recent national profile and policy positions, weighed against questions about primary viability and general election electability. The field remains highly fragmented, with the top candidate claiming only 18% odds—indicating substantial uncertainty. Upcoming factors that could shift these odds include formal candidate announcements, major legislative outcomes, economic data affecting incumbent party prospects, and early primary voting when it occurs in 2027-2028.
- ›Newsom's 18% probability ranks first among six tracked candidates, yet represents only 18 cents on the dollar, indicating very high uncertainty about the eventual nominee
- ›Trading volume on Newsom contracts ($27,375 in 24 hours) is substantial but comparable to other candidates, suggesting reasoned disagreement rather than consensus
- ›The contract structure captures only six specific individuals; market-wide probabilities for 'any Democrat' or 'any Republican' would show how much uncertainty derives from candidate selection versus general election factors
- ›No scheduled primary voting occurs until early 2027, meaning current pricing reflects long-term expectations about candidate viability and party dynamics rather than near-term electoral data
- ›Newsom's proximity to Trump (3¢) and Carlson (4¢) in market odds suggests these contracts price narrative momentum and media attention as much as structural electoral advantages
Recently closed in election 2026
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 1d
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 1d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 1d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (17% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.