Will Dusty Johnson qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+36pp
33h ago
24h volume
$3K
1 contracts
Top contract
97¢
$3K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Larry Rhoden qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Dusty Johnson will advance to the runoff round in South Dakota's 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary. The 61% probability sits between Larry Rhoden (85%) and Toby Doeden (92%), suggesting Johnson is viewed as a plausible but not dominant candidate. Key drivers include Johnson's current political positioning, his name recognition as a sitting U.S. Representative, and the overall structure of South Dakota Republican primary dynamics. The uncertainty will resolve when South Dakota holds its primary election, likely in June 2026, where vote totals will determine the top two finishers who advance to the runoff. Market participants are likely weighing Johnson's moderate profile against potential challenges from other candidates, along with turnout patterns and voter preferences in the primary electorate.
- ›Dusty Johnson is currently a U.S. Representative from South Dakota, which provides baseline name recognition and incumbent advantages
- ›The top two candidates (Rhoden and Doeden) are priced substantially higher (85-92¢), suggesting the market views them as more likely frontrunners than Johnson
- ›Trading volume on Johnson's contract ($268 in 24h volume) is substantially higher than Doeden ($56) but lower than Rhoden ($1,062), indicating moderate market interest and uncertainty
- ›South Dakota Republican primary rules and the runoff mechanism will determine whether Johnson finishes in the top two among all candidates competing
- ›The primary election timing will occur before the runoff, making it the definitive event that resolves this contract
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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