Anthropic extends AI lead as Gemini 3.5 release approaches
The market for the best AI model end of May gives Anthropic a 92% probability, up 3¢ on 63k volume. Gemini 3.5 release by May 31 is priced at 82¢, up 6¢. The AI race is consolidating around a few players, with Google trying to catch up.
Key takeaways
- 01
The market for the best AI model end of May gives Anthropic a 92% probability, up 3¢ on 63k volume.
- 02
Gemini 3.5 release by May 31 is priced at 82¢, up 6¢.
- 03
The AI race is consolidating around a few players, with Google trying to catch up.
Full analysis
The AI landscape is quickly evolving, and prediction markets are capturing the narrative shift. The polymarket contract "Which company has the best AI model end of May?: Anthropic" (ticker 0x5072d0bf27763754b7) rose 3¢ to 92¢ on 63,401 volume, indicating near-certainty that Claude will be considered the top model this month. In contrast, Google's competitor is trading at only 6¢, and OpenAI at 1¢. Meanwhile, "Gemini 3.5 released by...?: May 31" (ticker 0x009cb79c526eff4af8) jumped 6¢ to 82¢ on 48,092 volume, suggesting a launch is imminent. If Gemini 3.5 ships and performs well, the best AI model market could see a dramatic reversal. The "AI bubble burst by December 31, 2026" contract sits at 22¢, indicating persistent skepticism about valuation sustainability. Traders should watch for benchmark releases (FrontierMath) and product announcements.
Zoom out
sf query "best ai model may 2026"