Will Russia capture Lyman by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$833
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2025
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Lyman by
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?: May 31
0x976adf…4ddc
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Russian forces will capture Lyman, a city in Donetsk that Ukraine recaptured in October 2022, before a specified future date. The 3% level suggests participants assess this outcome as unlikely given current frontline positions and Ukrainian defensive capabilities. The probability would move primarily on changes to the military balance in eastern Ukraine—significant Russian advances or Ukrainian withdrawals in the Donetsk region could raise it, while stabilized front lines or Ukrainian counteroffensives would likely keep it low. The resolution will depend on actual territorial control as confirmed by military sources and open-source intelligence tracking, with any major shifts in the conflict's momentum serving as potential catalysts for probability adjustment.
- ›Current front-line distance between Russian and Ukrainian forces near Lyman, measurable through satellite imagery and military reports
- ›Trajectory of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast over recent months, which would indicate whether momentum supports capture
- ›Ukrainian force strength and defensive positions in the Lyman area, including fortifications and reserve availability
- ›Supply line sustainability for either side attempting to hold or capture the city
- ›Broader ceasefire negotiations or peace agreements that could freeze territorial lines before capture occurs
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.