Will Vladimir Prebilič be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

This market is pricing Prebilič at zero probability despite $38k in open interest, suggesting either near-certain elimination from contention or extreme illiquidity masking true odds. The 7-day collapse from 1¢ to 0¢ combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $6.01 indicates the market has effectively frozen, making price discovery unreliable with over a year until the March 2026 resolution date. The zero spread reflects the lack of active trading rather than consensus, so this contract should be treated as illiquid and potentially mispriced.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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