Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?

This market shows extreme pricing disconnect with István Kapitány trading at 0¢ despite $91k in open interest, suggesting either near-zero consensus probability or potential liquidity constraints at the extremes. The $3,191.77 in 24-hour volume against substantial open interest indicates moderate activity, though the zero spread and exact market close date (4/12/2026) aligned with Hungary's scheduled parliamentary elections creates a well-defined resolution event. The neutral regime score of 0.341 suggests stable conditions, but the complete absence of any bid-ask spread warrants caution about actual tradability at these extreme prices.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

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