Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Andy Beshear is priced at an extremely depressed 1¢ implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting minimal market confidence in a 2028 presidential bid despite his prominence as Kentucky's governor. The $396K open interest against just $63K in 24-hour volume suggests this is a relatively illiquid position with potential for sharp repricing if Beshear gains momentum as a candidate or if Democratic primary dynamics shift. The zero spread and unavailable Kalshi pricing limit arbitrage opportunities, though the neutral regime score indicates no unusual volatility is currently driving sentiment.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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