Will Luka Mesec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

This market has collapsed to zero probability despite $13.5K in open interest, representing an extreme 18-cent drop over seven days that suggests a decisive shift in political sentiment against Mesec's candidacy. The complete absence of trading volume and zero spread indicate severe illiquidity and potential abandonment by traders, making any position difficult to exit. With the resolution date locked at March 22, 2026, the market is pricing in near-certainty that Mesec will not become Slovenia's next PM, though the persistence of open interest hints some traders may still hold contrarian positions or are unable to close them.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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