Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

This market shows extreme consensus pricing at 99¢ with a dramatic 35-point rally over seven days, suggesting either a significant political development in Hungary or potential mispricing given the 16-month timeframe to the April 2026 election. The zero spread and $177k in 24-hour volume indicate tight liquidity despite $524k open interest, which is unusual for such a lopsided probability and warrants caution about exit difficulty at these prices. The neutral regime score (0.409) conflicts with the near-certainty pricing, suggesting the market may be overweighting recent momentum rather than reflecting genuine political fundamentals.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

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