Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Rubio's 11¢ price reflects a historically low probability for a sitting Secretary of State, yet the market shows extreme volatility (731% realized vol) and unusually asymmetric yields—YES holders face 287% annualized return versus just 5.3% for NO—suggesting significant disagreement about his viability. The $210k daily volume on $208k open interest indicates tight liquidity relative to trading activity, and the 7-day rally from 9¢ to 12¢ combined with a 4.11 vol ratio and elevated cliff risk (7/10) suggests recent price momentum that may reflect shifting political sentiment or information arrival rather than fundamental reassessment.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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