Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Buttigieg is priced at a historically low 2% probability despite holding significant open interest of $392k, suggesting either strong consensus skepticism or potential value for contrarian bettors. The 24-hour volume of $21.9k is modest relative to open interest, indicating relatively thin liquidity that could amplify price swings on larger trades. With the zero spread and maker-heavy regime (0.295 score), this market shows minimal trading friction but limited depth, making it suitable primarily for small positions or long-term conviction bets rather than active trading.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Regime

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