Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

At just 1¢ with $24,050 in open interest but zero 24-hour volume, this market shows extreme illiquidity despite meaningful capital deployed, suggesting traders are either locked into positions or have abandoned the contract. Paolini's 1% implied probability appears notably depressed for a player ranked in the top 10 who has reached multiple Grand Slam finals, indicating either significant skepticism about her grass-court performance or that this market is pricing in competitive depth rather than individual player quality. With the market closing on the final day of Wimbledon 2026 (July 12), there's minimal time for late price discovery, and the zero spread suggests no active market-makers are quoting bids and offers.

Resolution rules

Wimbledon 2026 is scheduled for June 29 - July 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Wimbledon (https://www.wimbledon.com/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

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