Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

5¢

Bid/Ask 4/6¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $5,004.109·OI $8,230.693·Closes Jun 30, 2026·72d remaining

0x2dd963e037878e2cafe2670129b0e742238d9522ac77cc797fea42742f7045cd

7-day price169 snapshots · 73 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Avdija's 5¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability for the 2025–26 MIP award, with an extreme 9,693% implied yield on "Yes" bets that suggests minimal market confidence in his candidacy. The 72-day timeframe and $13.2M combined liquidity provide reasonable depth, though the 1,563% realized volatility and 19 Cliff Risk Index indicate this is a highly speculative position prone to sharp repricing if Avdija's season performance shifts expectations. The 7-day decline from 6¢ to 5¢ suggests weakening sentiment, though the neutral regime score (0.409) and low information arrival rate (0.2/h) indicate limited recent catalyst activity driving the move.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88Close-time delta 6878h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Most Improved Player. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Most Improved Player, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 9693.1%

IY (No) 26.9%

Adj IY 5816%

CRI 19

RV 1563%

VR 0.98

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	9693.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	26.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5816%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1563%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.98	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.40	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 11:17:08 AM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:53:34 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x2dd963e037878e2cafe2670129b0e742238d9522ac77cc797fea42742f7045cd yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →